Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)

An opportunity to join in on https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer
Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%.
Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Adele Lopez

Michael Wheatley

I'll resolve according to the number of current justices listed at resolution time on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States

Jordan Jurcyk

CompmanJX3

howtodowtle

Austin

Em of the Night

Undox

Bob Kelso

Dave Aiello

Evan Conrad

Łukasz Mielicki

cultureulterior

Nikola

hagi

We want to switch to a new database, because we've been experiencing some pain points with Firestore:
- Our database bill has been getting quite expensive for a small startup ($1400 per month).
- We have to duplicate data across documents to achieve performance goals. E.g. denormalizing user avatar URLs.
- Queries are not very powerful. For example, you can't filter two fields simultaneously by the greater than operator '>'.
- Related: Firebase cloud functions have extremely slow cold-start times (>5 seconds is common), and deploying new versions can take minutes.

We are actively researching alternatives, but we could use your help!

What database should we switch to? The rest of our tech stack is Nextjs, React, Typescript, and Tailwind.

Submit your answer, or bet on which we will decide on! This is not a poll, this is a prediction market; this market will resolve to the database that is officially powering our site as of market close time (end of day PT on May 31st)

(Our company is Manifold Markets, which runs this site!)

Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

This resolves according to https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022 . Quoting them:

This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.

If the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to "Yes". 
Otherwise, the market will resolve "No".

Note, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.

Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year?

Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES.

Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.

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